The first post of the year requires an obligatory spiel reflecting on the past year with goals on what I aim to do in the new year and blah blah blah but I’ll keep it short. Thanks for reading and being a part of the first hundred subscribers to my Newsletter, I have some ideas on how to show my appreciation so stay tuned. In the meantime, just know that I’ll continue to write weekly and have much bigger ideas coming soon. Now back to business and their goals for 2024.
2024 Goals
New Year’s is a time for resolutions and TikTok’s is growth. The company aims to 10x its US e-commerce business to as much as $17.5B in merchandise volume, which would bring it up to Amazon-level competition.
TikTok was last year on track to amass around $20 billion in global gross merchandise value, with Southeast Asia contributing the bulk of sales through its platform, Bloomberg News reported. Now, the company is seeking to expand sales in the US and Latin America, where it’s planning to launch the e-commerce operation in coming months, two people familiar with the matter said. - TikTok Eyes $17.5 Billion Shopping Business on Amazon’s Turf, Bloomberg
I spent the past week in Nicaragua, and one thing I noticed was a lot people on their phones doomscrolling on Instagram Reels and TikTok. They would tell me about news they saw and asked me if I too did the dances (I don’t, I’m lame). One other thing I noticed was the presence of Chinese commerce and a growing Chinese population, in line with their growing investments in the region over the past couple of years:
As of 2022, Panama has received $2.5 billion in investments from China since 2005, the largest investment in the region, with additional investments following Panama’s establishment of official ties with the PRC in 2017.
Since 2005 China has invested $4.1 billion into Mexico, making China Mexico’s ninth largest investor.
During 2021, Chinese and Hong Kong based companies invested in Mexico – up 76% from 2020.
$2.26 billion of these investments were in Mexico’s energy sector with the rest divided among the logistics, metals and transports sectors.
Other Central American countries have also received substantial investments from China including $700 million in Guatemala’s technology sector and $810 million in Costa Rica’s transport, entertainment and technology sectors. — from China Regional Snapshot: Mexico and Central America, Foreign Affairs Committee
So we have China investing heavily into parts of Latin America, establishing trade relations. Then we have the continued growth and spread of TikTok across the Americas, which is owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance with many of the products sold on TikTok Shop coming from Chinese suppliers. This supply chain establishment, paired with continued growth in the US, already presents the chance for some impressive growth in the new year. But does the targeted growth in Latin America also signal a need for the company to diversify into different markets — pointing to a potential risk in the US?
Deinfluencing
Back in the states, there’s a growing resistance to influencer culture:
Deinfluencing is a rapidly growing social media trend that purports to “educate the general public on the need to divest away from obtaining or upholding an excess of products that are not needed in [our] daily lives,” says environmental educator Isaias Hernandez.
TikTok content creator @sadgrlswag helped to catapult the term into virality in January 2023, posting a video in which she railed against a long list of trendy accessories, devices, and even books. “I’m here to deinfluence you. Do not get the Ugg minis. Do not get the Dyson Airwrap. Do not get the Charlotte Tilbury Wand,” she urged. “Do not get the Stanley cup. Do not get Colleen Hoover’s books. Do not get the AirPods Pro Max.” Other TikTokers soon adapted the audio, including @chez.amelie, whose iteration garnered more than 4.7 million views. - What Is Deinfluencing? Unpacking TikTok’s Unlikeliest Shopping Trend, Vogue
The hashtag #Deinfluencing currently has 1.2B views on TikTok along with other similar hashtags:
One of the key competitive advantages of TikTok is how it’s able to meld online entertainment with impulse buying. The possibility of monetizing your content is a temptation to creators, as they no longer create for the sake of making art, but instead perform. As someone who is actively navigating this landscape, I’ve noticed there’s a delicate balance between serving your audience and authenticity. The impulsive feeling that leads to reckless shopping is the same feeling that leads to clickbait. We’ve spent the past couple of years bombarded by hoards of ads hidden behind a veil of trust and consumers are exhausted. Throw in some AI-generated content, and suddenly nothing can be trusted.
As fellow substacker, Kyla Scanlon puts it:
[2024 predictions] Influencer Apocalypse - The girls are not real anymore. It’s very much simulacra and simulation, and the viewers are noticing. Authenticity will be key. - 2024 Outlook: Rate Cuts and the Influencer Apocalypse, Kyla’s Newsletter
ByteDance is probably aware of these changing sentiments and, as a business, the strategy is to double down on what works while diversifying into new markets. They’ll exhaust the hell out of US markets, but once that well dries up, they’ll have a new, less regulated market readily available only a few miles south of the border.
Thank you
As an avid TikTok user, I have yet to buy something from TikTok shop. Mostly out of laziness (I have to get my card, enter the info, enter my address, and all that — too much work). But the deals look ridiculous, and I’m sure the company is not profitable. Of course, that doesn’t matter as long as you have capital to burn. While deinfluencing may work a bit to slow down these impulsive trends, I think it’ll only work for older generations — specifically those that still remember a time without internet (pre-2000 kids?). The younger generations see this as normal and with the way they shop on games like Fortnite, I don’t see this market going anywhere. As always, if you have any questions, want more explanations, or strongly disagree, comment below, follow me on Twitter (X), follow me on Threads, follow me on TikTok, or shoot me an email. Oh, and Happy New Year.
Disclaimer: These views are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization with which I am affiliated with.